Saturday, November 20, 2010

Global warming: We can't handle the truth anymore | The Economist

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Global warming

We can't handle the truth anymore

Nov 18th 2010, 17:18 by M.S.

LOTS of people believe untrue things because they happen to coincide with their interests or sympathies. I have a friend, a fellow Redskins fan, who persuaded herself earlier this year that Washington's acquisition of Donovan McNabb was a more important development than the Eagles' signing of Michael Vick, and that the Redskins were now championship contenders. On Monday night, real-world developments demonstrated the inaccuracy of this analysis, 59-28. Fortunately, however, while my friend is now free to persist in her optimistic delusions about the wisdom of making Mr McNabb a franchise player, she can't actually try to maintain that the Eagles did not beat the Redskins on Monday night. The score is up there for everyone to see, everyone in Washington is forced to acknowledge that their team got stomped, and this will help generate the appropriate pressure to perform better in the future. It's hard to imagine a world in which Redskins-leaning newspapers pretended the team had won, tried to sow confusion by re-reporting the Skins' 17-12 victory over the Eagles earlier this year, refused to report the loss entirely, cherry-picked positive statistics showing their side was outperforming the opponent on rushing second downs behind their own 30-yard line, or generally muddied the waters such that most Washington fans were under the impression they had beaten Philadelphia. The sports press simply isn't that biased or cavalier about the importance of reporting what's actually happening in the world.

The political press, on the other hand...that's another story. And here is one result:

A new Pew Research poll finds 53% of Republicans say there is no solid evidence the earth is warming. Among Tea Party Republicans, 70% say there is no evidence.

Key finding: "Disbelief in global warming in the GOP is a recent occurrence. Just a few years ago, in 2007, a 62%-majority of Republicans said there is solid evidence of global warming, while less than a third (31%) said there is no solid evidence. Currently, just 38% of Republicans say there is solid evidence the earth is warming, and only 16% say that warming is caused by human activity."

It's one thing to hold the position that rising global temperatures are due to natural variation, not human activity. I consider that position wrong and dangerous, but it's a dispute over the analysis. But it is simply a fact that the planet is getting warmer. That many people who previously knew this have come to un-know it indicates that people are busy at work promoting ignorance.

Of course, many scientists have changed their minds about global warming over the past few years, too.

Scientists long believed that the collapse of the gigantic ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica would take thousands of years, with sea level possibly rising as little as seven inches in this century, about the same amount as in the 20th century.

But researchers have recently been startled to see big changes unfold in both Greenland and Antarctica.

As a result of recent calculations that take the changes into account, many scientists now say that sea level is likely to rise perhaps three feet by 2100—an increase that, should it come to pass, would pose a threat to coastal regions the world over.

And the calculations suggest that the rise could conceivably exceed six feet, which would put thousands of square miles of the American coastline under water and would probably displace tens of millions of people in Asia.

Glaciers don't lie. The earth is warming. Republicans used to know this. Now they don't. Who is responsible for persuading these people of a falsehood? Those people need to be held to account.

(Photo credit: AFP)

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