In the years before Hong Kong reverted to Chinese control, the children of its rich and upper middle classes were sent in great numbers to Canada, Australia, Britain and the U.S. for schooling — and passports. These children were the means of escape for their families if escape was necessary. We may be seeing the same phenomenon repeating itself, with the mass exodus of China's political and economic elites children to schools abroad.
This time, the U.S. is the most-favored destination, with 100,000 Chinese students studying in American colleges and universities — more than any other country. Many thousands more study in high school and boarding schools. The talk in Shanghai and Beijing, and New York and Boston, is that many are "just-in-case" children, vectors to more permanent residency for their families.
The arrest and disappearance of world-renowned artist Ai Weiwei is but the latest evidence that the political culture of China is shifting toward that of a police state. For the past 20 years, the upper classes in China's cities have been able to negotiate an ever widening-space of freedom for themselves. It was possible to talk to censors who, by and large, were willing to liberalize when possible. Private networks and workarounds let elites retain access to information when Google, YouTube, and Twitter were shut down. Artists were allowed to criticize the growing inequality in society in their work.
This appears to be ending as the military and extremely conservative political forces restrict civic and cultural spaces. The Middle East upheavals and the prospect of a more liberal Tiananmen generation soon taking power has pushed policy to the extreme right in China. Political control in universities is tightening and overseas travel for scientists is being scrutinized. While government economic policy favors "indigenous innovation" and Beijing's five-year plan focusses on innovation, the free flow of information and creative expression are being repressed.
Meanwhile, some 20% to 30% of college graduates every year can't get white-collar jobs and do menial work while protests against corruption in rural areas and rising inequality in the city increase in number. High-profile officials and businessmen are being arrested or blocked. The head of China's famous high-speed train project was just arrested for corruption. The CEO of BYD, China's electric-car company that has Warren Buffet as an investor, has run afoul of authorities who prevent him from expanding production. Indeed, politically-connected state enterprises are reasserting themselves against the entire private sector.
Beneath the gloss of high-GDP growth numbers, there is now a whiff of fear in China. A bright future for the political and economic elites is not as guaranteed as once thought. Sending their children to study in the U.S. is an insurance policy that many Chinese are purchasing. These overseas students make up China's new just-in-case generation.
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