The 25-year debt-fueled boom of 1982-2007 has ended, and it has left the country with a stagnant economy, massive debts, high unemployment, huge wealth inequality, an enormous budget deficit, and a sense of entitlement engendered by a half-century of prosperity.
After decades of instant gratification, Americans have also come to believe that all problems can be solved instantly, if only the right leaders are put in charge and the right decisions are made. And so our government has devolved into a permanent election campaign, in which incumbents blame each other for the current mess, and challengers promise change.
The trouble is that our current problems cannot be solved with a simple fix. They also cannot be solved quickly. It took 25 years for us to get to this point, and it will likely take us at least a decade or two to work our way out of it, even if we make the right decisions.
So it is time that we began to face reality.
THE PROBLEM: TOO MUCH DEBT
They thought we were having just another post-War recession—a serious recession, yes, but a cyclical one, a recession that easy money, government stimulus, and a return of "confidence" could fix.
A handful of economists, meanwhile, argued that the recession was actually fundamentally different—a "balance sheet" recession resulting from a quarter-century-long debt-binge, one that would take a decade or more to fix.
In the past four years, it has become increasingly clear that the latter diagnosis was correct: The US economy is behaving exactly the way other economies have behaved after piling up mountains of debt and eventually going through a financial crisis. It is bumping along with disappointing growth, high unemployment, and, increasingly (and understandably) social unrest.
Image: St. Louis Fed.
You reduce the debt.
More specifically—and here's the critical point—you reduce the debt that is crippling the productive part of the economy. This is the part that creates most of the jobs, prosperity, and wealth. It is also the part that pays for the rest of the economy. That part is the private sector.
What debt is crippling the private sector?
Consumer debt. The household mortgages, credit cards, student loans, and other obligations that is forcing consumers to save and pay down debts instead of spend. Consumers still account for about 70% of the spending in the US economy, and that spending is now constrained. (See chart below—click for larger).
(Consumer spending was also artificially boosted for 25 years by the debt binge, so there's no way we're going back to that era. And we shouldn't strive to).
Image: Calculated Risk
By doing what they are doing right now:
- Spending less
- Saving more
- Paying down debt
- Restructuring debt
Importantly, this process takes time. And unless you're willing to just tear up the laws and contracts that have formed the basis of the country's economy for the past two centuries, there's no way to just wave a magic wand and make the debts go away.
Also importantly, this healing process has nothing to do with "restoring confidence." Or "reducing regulation." Even if you could suddenly cast a spell and make all Americans (irrationally) exuberant again, you can't solve a debt problem with more debt. Specifically, you can't reduce the amount you owe by borrowing more.
So where does that leave the economy?
It leaves the private sector, the productive engine of the economy, nursing its way back to health.
And it leaves the public sector—the government—trying to minimize the pain while the private sector heals itself.
Image: US Government Spending
Those facts should be relatively uncontroversial. Where the disagreement comes is when and where the government should cut back—and how much.
One side argues that the government should cut back immediately and completely, forcing the country to "take its medicine" in one quick dose.
The other side argues that the government should continue spending to support the economy until the private sector is healthy enough to once again carry the torch.
The policies that arise from this argument affect the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people, so it's not surprising that people feel strongly about them.
So what's the best approach to solving our problem?
Here's where philosophical differences come into play. "Best" is, at least somewhat, in the eye of the beholder.
The two extreme solutions are these:
Image: Calculated Risk
Then immediately cut government spending from ~20%+ of GDP to the 15% of GDP the government collected in taxes last year and hope (pray) that the resulting dislocation doesn't further wallop GDP (which history suggests it almost certainly will).
Do you want to pretend we don't have serious problems and just keep the government spending vastly more than it takes in every year until our government debt load finally becomes unmanageable and the currency collapses?
Then just keep doing what we've been doing for most of the past 30 years.
For obvious reasons, neither of those two approaches are appealing.
Fortunately, there's a third option, which lies somewhere in the middle.
This solution consists of two parts:
- Acknowledging the problem (and the problems with either extreme approach)
- Designing an approach that addresses these problems and helps us work our way out of our predicament with the least possible pain, dislocation, and disruption.
THE "ACKNOWLEDGEMENT" PHASE...
- Acknowledge the real problem with the economy—that we're in a "balance sheet" recession
- Acknowledge that, to fix the economy, consumers need to work off their debts
- Acknowledge that trend-line government spending is already too high relative to both GDP and the taxes that the government collects
- Acknowledge that, eventually, to fix the latter problem, government spending will have to drop and taxes will have to go up
- Acknowledge that, raising taxes and/or cutting spending sharply right now will wallop the economy
- Acknowledge that walloping the economy right now will make the problem worse, not better, at least over the short term (consumers will have less money to spend, so the economy will shrink, and tax collection will drop...and then this vicious cycle will repeat. See Greece.)
- Acknowledge that making the problem worse right now will increase social frustration and unrest (See Occupy Wall Street). It also won't help the rich get richer.
- Acknowledge that denying the problem and continuing runaway government spending indefinitely will eventually lead to a debt and currency crisis (see Argentina)
- Acknowledge that, right now, the government can borrow as much money as it wants at historically low interest rates—rates that are getting lower all the time
- Acknowledge that the only spending in the economy that the government can directly control is government spending
- Acknowledge, therefore, that the "best approach" given our current reality involves two specific goals:
- Minimizing short-term pain while giving consumers time to nurse themselves back to health
- Getting the long-term deficit under control before the government implodes
THIS LEADS TO A SOLUTION THAT SEEMS THE MOST REASONABLE AND LEAST RISKY AND DISRUPTIVE GIVEN THE CURRENT REALITY...
- The government should construct and pass a long-term budget plan that
- Minimizes short-term pain, while
- Getting the long-term deficit under control
But so be it.
I think this is the most reasonable approach to solving our nation's problems. I'll explain more about why in the coming days.